The hottest institution predicted GDP growth rate

2022-08-09
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The agency predicts a GDP growth rate of 6.7% in the first quarter and a moderate economic recovery

the agency predicts a GDP growth rate of 6.7% in the first quarter and a moderate economic recovery

China Construction machinery information

it is reported that on April 15, the National Bureau of statistics will release a number of economic data, and many agencies predict that GDP in the first quarter is expected to warm and recover, with a growth rate of 6.7%

according to the Beijing Gaohua Research Report, the industrial added value is expected to increase both month on month and year-on-year growth in March, thanks to strong policy support and the disappearance of short-term drag factors such as the sharp decline in tobacco production and the Spring Festival effect. In March, the PMI of the Bureau of statistics and Caixin manufacturing increased significantly, reflecting the improvement of the month on month growth rate in March. In addition, the acceleration of infrastructure investment may also push up the growth rate of fixed asset investment. With a good impact intensity gauge, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in March will rise from 10.2% in January February to 10.4% if the change-over switch is turned to the "fast retreat" position

"it is noteworthy that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the first quarter is expected to slow down to 6.7% from 6.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, and the implied quarter on quarter growth rate will drop to about 5.8% from 6.4% in the fourth quarter of last year." According to Song Yu, an analyst at Beijing Gaohua securities, the distribution materials of vehicle modified plastics mainly come from raw materials (resins and additives), processing process (thermal oxidation and shearing) and molding process (injection temperature and pressure)

According to the data of relevant institutions, GDP growth in the first quarter continued to decline, but the data in March showed that industrial production began to improve and fixed asset investment remained stable; Foreign trade has recovered significantly due to the base number; CPI may continue to remain high, and the decline of PPI will narrow; The M2 growth rate has a falling demand. Overall, the economy shows moderate signs of recovery. It is estimated that the industrial added value in March is 5.9%, the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment is 9.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods is 10.5%

Liang Jing, a researcher at the Institute of international finance of Bank of China, believes that some factors will help stabilize the economy: first, investment has achieved a "good start", with obvious differentiation in investment structure and explosive growth of new projects; Second, the de stocking process of real estate has been significantly accelerated, and the simultaneous rise in sales and prices has also led to the stabilization of the front-end land and investment development market, and significant changes have taken place in the market pattern; Third, new changes have taken place in the prices of energy and raw materials. The decline of PPI has narrowed and the increase of CPI has expanded. The Bank of China expects GDP growth of 6.7% in the first quarter

in addition, the second quarter 2016 economic and financial outlook report released by the Institute of international finance of the Bank of China shows that in the first quarter of 2016, China's economy was in a key stage of "long short game". Affected by weak external demand, capacity reduction, consumption slowdown and other factors, the downward pressure on the economy is still large. At the same time, investment recovery, PPI decline narrowing and other factors will help stabilize the economy. It is predicted that GDP will grow by about 6.6% in the first quarter

"in the past year, real estate transactions have been active, and real estate investment has recovered earlier than the market expected, which means that there may be some room for rebound in the future, which will undoubtedly form an important support for the stabilization and recovery of fixed asset investment and even GDP." Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, said

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