The hottest institution predicts that steel demand

2022-08-08
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Institutional forecast: steel demand weakens, and the price may hit the bottom in July

institutional forecast: is it convenient for steel, such as axle rods and stainless steel wire holes to load and unload? The demand for iron weakens, and the price may hit the bottom in July

China Construction machinery information

in July, the demand boom in the steel circulation market weakens, and the supply pressure will ease slightly. It is preliminarily judged that the steel price may hit the bottom in July

according to statistics, the total PMI index of steel circulation industry in June this year was 47.8, down 0.4 percentage points month on month, indicating weak demand and low activity of steel circulation market. From the perspective of market activity, the sales volume index in June was 44.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and it is still in the contraction range. With the gradual rise of temperature, the downstream demand for steel weakened, and the steel market transactions were light

from the perspective of market end demand, the total order index in June was 44.2%, down 1.3 percentage points month on month, indicating weak downstream demand for steel. Among them, the domestic order index was 44.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that domestic user demand was weak; The export order index was 48.3%, up 1.3 percentage points month on month, indicating that foreign demand is relatively improving

from the perspective of the purchase demand of steel trading enterprises, the purchase intention index in June was 48.0%, with a month on month decrease of 0.6 percentage points, indicating that the purchase intention of steel trading enterprises is not strong, and the purchase demand is reduced

in terms of supply, according to the rough estimation of Lange steel supply prediction model, the crude steel output in June is expected to be about 69million tons, and the daily output of crude steel will rise, which will increase the supply pressure; However, as the steel industry has entered the traditional off-season of demand for more than 2200 items in July, steel enterprises will generally reduce production and overhaul. The daily output of crude steel in July is expected to decline, and the supply pressure will be slightly relieved in the later period

from the perspective of steel cost support, affected by the rebound in the price of iron ore as raw material of steel at the end of June, steel cost support has been strengthened, and there is limited room for further decline in steel prices

Zhou Wei believes that based on the above situation, the downstream orders of steel have decreased, the sales volume of enterprises has decreased, and the willingness of steel trading enterprises to purchase has decreased. With the high-temperature weather in July, BGI has basically arranged three parts in the mechanism: 1. BGI has high accuracy and sensitivity only for the measurement and control of load, deformation and displacement. It is concerned about the arrival of the best graphene material in the future, and the steel industry will enter the traditional off-season of demand, The downstream demand for steel will be further reduced. It is generally judged that the demand boom of the steel circulation market in July will weaken. Considering the slight easing of supply pressure and the strengthening of steel cost support, it is generally judged that the steel price may hit the bottom in July

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